JOLTS Job Openings

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey asks a sample of US employers how many positions they were actively trying to fill on the last business day of the month, along with how many people they hired and how many left through quits, layoffs or other separations. The job-openings figure is the one listed on most calendars, but the survey is really a picture of churn: how quickly workers move in and out of jobs.

It lags the payrolls report by a month, often appearing earlier in the same week but describing the month before. Even so, it has gained prominence because it measures demand for labour directly. The ratio of openings to unemployed people is a popular indicator of how tight the market is, and Federal Reserve officials have cited it when discussing wage pressure. A large surprise in openings has at times moved Treasury yields and the dollar, particularly when the market was already focused on labour cooling.

The survey has well-known weaknesses. Response rates have fallen over time, making the monthly change noisy and subject to sizeable revisions. Online postings have made it easier for firms to advertise roles they are in no hurry to fill, which may inflate openings relative to genuine hiring intent. Results are benchmarked to payroll employment, so revisions there flow through.

Many economists consider the quits rate the more telling series: workers tend to quit when they are confident of finding something better, so it has tracked wage growth closely. Private indexes of online job postings offer a higher-frequency check.