US Unemployment Rate

The US unemployment rate measures the proportion of the labour force without a job that has searched for one in the past four weeks and is available to start. It is derived from the Current Population Survey, a monthly interview of roughly sixty thousand households run by the Census Bureau on behalf of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. People who have stopped looking are counted outside the labour force rather than as unemployed, which is why broader measures such as U-6 are published alongside it.

Because it comes from households rather than employers, this rate can tell a different story from the payrolls count released at the same moment. Markets often weigh the two against each other. The rate matters directly for monetary policy: maximum employment is one half of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, and a sustained rise has historically been one of the more reliable early signals of recession. A jump of a few tenths of a point can therefore move rate expectations as much as a sizeable payrolls surprise.

The figure is rounded to one decimal place, so small changes in the underlying count can tip it up or down by a tenth. The household sample is much smaller than the business survey, making month-to-month moves noisy, and population controls are updated each January, which can create breaks in the level. Seasonal factors are revised annually as well.

Analysts usually read it together with the participation rate, the employment-to-population ratio and weekly initial claims.