Risk dial
mixedThe Kinzan risk dial reads 50 out of 100 — mixed — as of 10:53 UTC on 30 September 2026. The largest single input is gold, contributing −0.35.
Reading
50out of 100
The market read currently calls the tape mixed, in line with the dial.
What is moving it
The five largest contributions
Market stress
Share of the board beyond ±2σ of its own daily range
- Beyond 2σ
- 3 of 126
- Share
- 2%
- Beyond 3σ
- 0
- Reading
- Calm
- Furthest out
- GBP/AUD +2.6σ
Calm: at or under the base rate — what an ordinary day looks like. About 5% of instruments would clear 2σ on an ordinary day. 31 instruments without a volatility figure are excluded.
How the dial is built
The dial combines the 24-hour moves of the equity benchmarks, Bitcoin and Ether, copper, the VIX, gold and the US Dollar Index, together with the strength of the yen and the franc (traditional havens) and the Australian and New Zealand dollars (currencies that tend to rise with risk appetite).
Each input's weight is inverse to its typical daily range, not to its importance. The VIX routinely moves several percent on a day equities move less than one, so weighting them equally would let volatility alone pin the dial. The weighted sum is passed through a hyperbolic tangent, which keeps the reading inside 0–100 and stops a single outlier from pegging it. Readings of 65 and above are labelled risk-on, 35 and below risk-off, and everything between mixed.
An input with no measured move — a closed market — is left out rather than counted as flat. The dial describes the tape; it is not a forecast.