McDonald's

Over its last 20 sessions MCD has moved 0.97% on a typical day, making it one of the calmer of the stocks Kinzan tracks (their median is 1.81%).

That makes the last 24 hours a −1.7σ session for MCD — the kind it has roughly twice a month.

It sits in the lower half of its 24-hour range of 247.49–252.63, measured on hourly closes.

The New York block (13:00–22:00 UTC) did most of the work — roughly 72% of the movement over the last 24 hours.

Over the last 60 sessions of daily returns, it has moved most closely with HD (+0.47, a moderate relationship).

Its last close is at the 24th percentile of its own last 82 sessions, and its 20-day volatility at the 0th, near the bottom of its range for the period.

Market read: McDonald's is breaking down, sitting at the absolute bottom of its range after a sharp New York sell-off.

What it is

McDonald’s sells burgers, fries, breakfast and drinks through restaurants in well over a hundred countries, yet it operates only a small minority of them itself. Most are run by franchisees who pay a royalty on their sales and, in many cases, rent as well, because the company often owns or holds long leases on the land and buildings underneath. That is why the business is sometimes described as a property company with a restaurant brand on top: a share of other people’s turnover plus a landlord’s rent is steadier and far less capital-hungry than running kitchens. In some developmental markets a single local licensee runs the whole system and pays a royalty.

What drives it

Because the company is paid on sales rather than on restaurant profits, systemwide sales growth is the core figure, and comparable sales are read for the split between customer visits and average spend. Traffic is the more telling half. The chain depends heavily on lower- and middle-income diners, so when those households come under pressure the first sign is fewer visits, and the usual response is a push on value menus that can win the visits back at some cost to franchisee margins. Franchisee health matters more than it first appears: operators squeezed by food and wage inflation are slower to fund remodels, equipment and promotions. A large share of profit is earned outside the United States, so a stronger dollar reduces reported earnings when converted. A long record of annual dividend increases anchors part of its shareholder base.

How it trades through the day

Trading runs through the US cash session, 13:30 to 20:00 UTC in summer and an hour later in winter. Results come before the open. Realised volatility is low for a consumer company, and on days when the broad market sells off it often holds up better than the index, as investors treat it as somewhere to wait.

What it tends to move with

It moves with the large restaurant chains, Yum! Brands, Restaurant Brands International, Wendy’s and, more loosely, Chipotle, and shares their sensitivity to consumer data. Its defensive streak means it often behaves closer to consumer staples than to the rest of the discretionary sector. It is a Dow Jones Industrial Average constituent.