Starbucks

SBUX's 20-day volatility stands at 1.53% a day, making it a little calmer than most of the stocks Kinzan tracks (their median is 1.81%).

Measured against SBUX's own volatility rather than anyone else's, a −0.7σ reading is the kind of session it has most weeks.

It sits near the bottom of its 24-hour range of 100.61–102, measured on hourly closes.

The New York block (13:00–22:00 UTC) did most of the work — roughly 59% of the movement over the last 24 hours.

Over the last 60 sessions SBUX has had no strong day-to-day relationship with anything else Kinzan tracks — its closest link is MCD at +0.38.

Its last close is at the 33rd percentile of its own last 82 sessions, and its 20-day volatility at the 89th.

Market read: Starbucks is pinned near its daily lows, suffering from persistent selling across multiple trading sessions.

What it is

Starbucks sells espresso drinks, brewed coffee, tea and food through a global network of coffeehouses. The distinctive feature is ownership. Where most large restaurant brands franchise nearly everything, Starbucks operates a large part of its estate directly, especially in the United States, so its income statement carries store wages, rent, coffee and dairy rather than a stream of royalties. Licensed stores in airports, supermarkets and many international markets pay fees and buy product from the company, and packaged coffee in supermarkets is sold through a long-term alliance with Nestlé. Its loyalty programme is unusually deep: members preload money onto stored-value accounts, giving the company cash paid in advance and a detailed record of visits.

What drives it

US comparable sales are the first number, divided into transactions and average ticket. Visits are what the market watches, because a higher ticket can come purely from price increases that eventually push occasional customers away. Behind it sits an operational question: whether stores can make complicated customised drinks quickly enough at the morning peak, which depends on staffing, equipment and how advance orders are sequenced with those at the counter. Labour is a recurring theme, both in wage costs and in the union organising that has spread across US stores. China is its second-largest market, and local chains competing aggressively on price have made it a harder place to grow. Arabica coffee prices matter, but the company buys well ahead and hedges, so moves in coffee futures tend to reach margins with a lag. Changes of chief executive and turnaround plans have produced some of its sharpest single-day moves.

How it trades through the day

It is a Nasdaq 100 constituent. The cash session runs 13:30 to 20:00 UTC in summer and 14:30 to 21:00 UTC in winter. Its fiscal year ends around the start of October, and results are released after the close, so the reaction plays out in after-hours trading and at the next day’s open.

What it tends to move with

It trades with the restaurant group, McDonald’s and Chipotle in particular, and with consumer discretionary shares more broadly. News about Chinese consumer spending and competition there affects it more than most US restaurant names, and it carries a loose, lagged link to arabica coffee futures.