US Dollar / Chilean Peso

USD/CLP's 20-day volatility stands at 0.41% a day, making it about as volatile as most of the forex Kinzan tracks (their median is 0.37%).

Measured against USD/CLP's own volatility rather than anyone else's, a +2.3σ reading is the kind it has only a few times a quarter.

It sits near the top of its 24-hour range of 985.57–994.76, measured on hourly closes.

The New York block (13:00–22:00 UTC) did most of the work — roughly 83% of the movement over the last 24 hours.

Over the last 60 sessions of daily returns, it has moved most closely with EUR/PLN (+0.58, a moderate relationship), and most inversely to PLAT (−0.69).

Its last close is at the 90th percentile of its own last 84 sessions, and its 20-day volatility at the 0th, near the bottom of its range for the period.

Market read: The dollar is hitting the top of its range against the peso, showing persistent strength.

What it is

USD/CLP is the number of Chilean pesos one US dollar buys; a higher figure means a weaker peso. Chile has run a free-floating exchange rate since it abandoned its exchange-rate band in 1999, with the Banco Central de Chile targeting inflation. The central bank intervenes only rarely, through pre-announced programmes in episodes it judges exceptional, which leaves the peso one of the more purely market-driven currencies in Latin America.

What drives it

Copper is the single most important influence. Chile has long been the world’s largest copper-mining country, and the metal accounts for a large share of its exports, so a rising copper price has historically strengthened the peso and pushed USD/CLP lower. Because China is the biggest buyer of copper, Chinese growth, property construction and industrial demand feed into the Chilean currency, and the yuan and the peso often weaken together. Chile’s large lithium reserves add a second link, to battery and electric-vehicle demand.

Domestic factors also matter. Chile’s private pension funds manage large pools of savings and adjust how much of their foreign assets they hedge, which can generate sizeable currency flows; changes to pension rules, including the emergency withdrawals allowed during the pandemic, have at times caused large swings in those flows. The interest-rate gap between the Banco Central de Chile and the Federal Reserve shapes carry demand, and political events, such as the social unrest of 2019 and the constitutional referendums that followed, have at times added a risk premium.

How it trades through the day

Santiago’s main trading hours fall largely within the New York block (13:00–22:00 UTC), which is when Chilean data, central bank decisions and most local volume arrive, alongside US releases. Copper trading in London during the London block (07:00–13:00 UTC) can set the tone ahead of the Chilean open, while the Asia block (22:00–07:00 UTC) is quiet, with the pair mostly marked to moves in Chinese markets and metals.

What it tends to move with

USD/CLP has historically moved inversely to copper and in the same direction as USD/CNH, reflecting China’s role as the main buyer of Chilean exports. It tends to move with other Latin American pairs such as USD/COP and USD/MXN in broad risk swings, and inversely to AUD/USD, another currency heavily exposed to Chinese commodity demand.