Rough Rice

Over its last 20 sessions RICE has moved 1.17% on a typical day, making it a little calmer than most of the commodities Kinzan tracks (their median is 1.88%).

That makes the last 24 hours a +0.5σ session for RICE — the kind of session it has most weeks.

It sits near the top of its 24-hour range of 17.775–18.035, measured on hourly closes.

Most of the move came in the New York session (13:00–22:00 UTC), which accounted for about 87% of the day's price action.

Over the last 60 sessions of daily returns, it has moved most closely with SOYMEAL (+0.40, a moderate relationship), and most inversely to ASX200 (−0.45).

Its last close is at the 100th percentile of its own last 83 sessions, and its 20-day volatility at the 24th.

Market read: Rough Rice is drifting lower, failing to find meaningful support during the New York session.

What it is

Rice feeds more people than any other grain, yet most is eaten where it is grown, so international trade is small relative to production. The Chicago Board of Trade contract covers US long-grain rough rice, meaning paddy rice with the hull still on, before milling. It is priced per hundredweight, a unit of 100 pounds, with the figure shown here in US dollars, and each contract covers 2,000 hundredweight. Because it reflects the American crop, it can diverge from Asian export prices, which are set by quoted offers rather than on an exchange.

What drives it

The US long-grain crop is concentrated in the Mississippi Delta and along the Gulf Coast. Arkansas grows the largest share, followed by states such as Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas, while California grows mostly medium-grain rice outside this contract. Planting runs through spring and harvest from late summer into autumn, so wet springs that delay sowing, hurricanes and extreme heat at flowering can all affect yields. The United States exports a large part of its long-grain crop, with Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean among the main destinations, so its price also responds to competition from South American and Asian suppliers. Globally, China and India are the largest producers and India is the largest exporter; its export restrictions, imposed at times to protect domestic supplies, have shaken world rice prices.

How it trades through the day

Rough rice is one of the least liquid contracts in the grain complex. Activity in the Asia block (22:00–07:00 UTC) and London block (07:00–13:00 UTC) is minimal, and nearly all volume falls in the US daytime within the New York block (13:00–22:00 UTC). With few participants, prices can gap between trades and settle a long way from the previous quote on little volume.

What it tends to move with

Rough rice has historically had a looser connection to the rest of the grain complex than corn, wheat and soybeans have with one another, because its crop, its buyers and its trade routes are largely separate. It can share broad moves with them when the US Dollar Index shifts, and over a season with soybeans, which compete with it for Delta farmland. Thai and Vietnamese export quotes are its closest global reference.